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CIE 9231 2022 June Paper 43 Q6

A Level / CIE / FS

CIE 9231 2022 June Paper 43 Paper · Question 6

题目

Problem

A company has two machines, A and B, which independently fill small bottles with a liquid. The volumes of liquid per bottle, in suitable units, filled by machines A and B are denoted by xx and yy respectively. A scientist at the company takes a random sample of 40 bottles filled by machine A and a random sample of 50 bottles filled by machine B. The results are summarised as follows.

∑x= 1120,∑x2=31400,∑y= 1370,∑y2=37600.\begin{align*} \sum x=&\,1120,\qquad\sum x^2=31400,\\ \sum y=&\,1370,\qquad\sum y^2=37600. \end{align*}

The population means of the volumes of liquid in the bottles filled by machines A and B are denoted by μA\mu_A and μB\mu_B.

(a) Test at the 2% significance level whether there is any difference between μA\mu_A and μB\mu_B.

[8]

(b) Find the set of values of α\alpha for which there would be evidence at the α%\alpha\% significance level that μA−μB\mu_A - \mu_B is greater than 0.25.

[4]
题目中文翻译

一家公司有两台机器 A 和 B,它们独立地向小瓶中灌装液体。机器 A 和 B 灌装的每瓶液体体积(以适当单位计)分别记为 xx 和 yy。公司的一名科学家随机抽取 40 个由机器 A 灌装的小瓶,以及 50 个由机器 B 灌装的小瓶。结果汇总如下。

∑x= 1120,∑x2=31400,∑y= 1370,∑y2=37600.\begin{align*} \sum x=&\,1120,\qquad\sum x^2=31400,\\ \sum y=&\,1370,\qquad\sum y^2=37600. \end{align*}

机器 A 和 B 灌装的小瓶中液体体积的总体均值分别记为 μA\mu_A 和 μB\mu_B。

(a) 在 2% 显著性水平下,检验 μA\mu_A 和 μB\mu_B 之间是否存在差异。

(8)

(b) 求 α\alpha 的取值集合,使得在 α%\alpha\% 显著性水平下,有证据表明 μA−μB\mu_A - \mu_B 大于 0.25。

(4)
原卷通用作答要求

Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.

You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.

Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.

请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

展开

用两个大样本分别估计总体方差,再用均值差的正态近似。检验是否存在差异要取双侧。

答题过程

展开

Test H0 ⁣:μA−μB=0H_0\colon\mu_A-\mu_B=0 against H1 ⁣:μA−μB≠0H_1\colon\mu_A-\mu_B\ne0. The sample means are 1120/40=281120/40=28 and 1370/50=27.41370/50=27.4. The unbiased variance estimates are

 sA2=31400−11202/4039=4039, sB2=37600−13702/5049=6249.\begin{align*} &\,s_A^2=\frac{31400-1120^2/40}{39}=\frac{40}{39},\\ &\,s_B^2=\frac{37600-1370^2/50}{49}=\frac{62}{49}. \end{align*}

The estimated variance of the difference of sample means is

Var⁡^(Xˉ−Yˉ)= sA240+sB250= 243447775=0.050947148….\begin{align*} \widehat{\operatorname{Var}}(\bar X-\bar Y) =&\,\frac{s_A^2}{40}+\frac{s_B^2}{50}\\ =&\,\frac{2434}{47775}=0.050947148\ldots. \end{align*}

The estimated standard error is sA2/40+sB2/50=0.225714…\sqrt{s_A^2/40+s_B^2/50}=0.225714\ldots, giving z=0.6/0.225714…=2.65822…z=0.6/0.225714\ldots=2.65822\ldots. The two-sided 2%2\% critical values are ±2.326\pm2.326. Since ∣z∣>2.326|z|>2.326, we reject H0H_0. There is sufficient evidence at the 2%2\% level that the machines have different population mean filling volumes.

(b)

解法一

思路

展开

零假设的差值改为 0.250.25,备择方向为较大。用 (a) 的标准误求单尾 pp 值,再换成百分数。

答题过程

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For H0 ⁣:μA−μB=0.25H_0\colon\mu_A-\mu_B=0.25 against H1 ⁣:μA−μB>0.25H_1\colon\mu_A-\mu_B>0.25, the statistic is

z=0.6−0.250.225714…=1.550629….z=\frac{0.6-0.25}{0.225714\ldots}=1.550629\ldots.

The upper-tail probability is 1−Φ(1.550629…)=0.0604952…1-\Phi(1.550629\ldots)=0.0604952\ldots. Using rejection when the pp-value is no greater than the significance level, the required values satisfy α≥100(1−Φ(1.550629…))\alpha\ge100(1-\Phi(1.550629\ldots)), whose boundary is about 6.056.05.