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CIE 9231 2025 Nov Paper 41 Q1

A Level / CIE / FS

CIE 9231 2025 Nov Paper 41 Paper · Question 1

题目

Problem

A group of 10 school children are asked to estimate the size of an angle θ∘\theta^\circ in a given acute angled triangle. These estimates, in degrees, are as follows.

8485778584878688838584 \quad 85 \quad 77 \quad 85 \quad 84 \quad 87 \quad 86 \quad 88 \quad 83 \quad 85

(a) Stating any assumptions you make, calculate a 95% confidence interval for θ\theta.

[5]

(b) Give a reason why the assumptions made in part (a) may not be appropriate in this case.

[1]
题目中文翻译

一组 10 名学生被要求估计某个锐角三角形中角 θ∘\theta^\circ 的大小。他们的估计值(单位为度)如下。

8485778584878688838584 \quad 85 \quad 77 \quad 85 \quad 84 \quad 87 \quad 86 \quad 88 \quad 83 \quad 85

(a) 说明你作出的任何假设,并计算 θ\theta 的 95% 置信区间。

(5)

(b) 给出一个理由,说明为什么(a)中作出的假设在本情境下可能不合适。

(1)
原卷通用作答要求

Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.

You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.

Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.

请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

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把真实角度视为估计值总体的均值。样本量为 1010,总体方差未知,故用 tt 区间。

答题过程

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Assume that the estimates are an independent random sample from a normal population with mean θ\theta and unknown variance. There are 1010 estimates, with ∑x=844\sum x=844 and ∑x2=71314\sum x^2=71314. The sample mean is 84.484.4 and the unbiased variance estimate is

s2=71314−8442/109=13415.s^2=\frac{71314-844^2/10}{9}=\frac{134}{15}.

For a two-sided 95%95\% interval, the critical value with 99 degrees of freedom is 2.2622.262. The interval is

 84.4±2.262134/1510= (82.262…,86.537958…).\begin{align*} &\,84.4\pm2.262\sqrt{\frac{134/15}{10}}\\ =&\,(82.262\ldots,86.537958\ldots). \end{align*}

Thus the interval for θ\theta is (82.3,86.5)(82.3,86.5) degrees to three significant figures.

(b)

解法一

思路

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结合数据收集方式检查随机抽样假设。题目只说明选了一组学生。

答题过程

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The children are described as one group, with no indication that they were randomly selected. Their estimates may therefore fail to represent the population assumed in (a).