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CIE 9231 2025 Nov Paper 44 Q5

A Level / CIE / FS

CIE 9231 2025 Nov Paper 44 Paper · Question 5

题目

Problem

A driving instructor believes that the performance (pass or fail) of students when taking a driving test is associated with their age. The following table summarises the number of students who pass and who fail, and the ages in years of the students taking the test, over a period of three years.

under 2020-40over 40total
pass3441681
fail1639964
total508015145

Test, at the 10%10\% significance level, whether performance is independent of age of student.

[7]
题目中文翻译

一名驾驶教练认为,学生参加驾驶考试时的表现(通过或未通过)与他们的年龄有关。下表总结了三年内参加考试的学生中通过和未通过的人数,以及学生的年龄(单位为年)。

20 岁以下20–40 岁40 岁以上合计
通过3441681
未通过1639964
合计508015145

在 10%10\% 显著性水平下,检验考试表现是否独立于学生年龄。

(7)
原卷通用作答要求

Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.

You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.

Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.

请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。

解答

解法一

思路

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按年龄组与是否通过构成列联表。先算独立假设下的期望频数,再用卡方统计量衡量偏离程度。

答题过程

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Let H0H_0 be that driving-test performance is independent of the student’s age group, and H1H_1 that they are associated. Under H0H_0 each expected count is its row total times its column total divided by 145145. For example, the expected number of passes in the under-20 group is 81(50)/14581(50)/145. The expected counts, rounded for display, are

ResultUnder 2020–40Over 40
Pass27.93144.6908.379
Fail22.06935.3106.621

All six expected counts exceed 55. Using their unrounded values in the test statistic,

 χ2=∑(O−E)2E= (34−27.931…)227.931…+ (41−44.690…)244.690…+ ⋯= 5.20849….\begin{align*} &\,\chi^2=\sum\frac{(O-E)^2}{E}\\ =&\,\frac{(34-27.931\ldots)^2}{27.931\ldots}\\ +&\,\frac{(41-44.690\ldots)^2}{44.690\ldots}\\ +&\,\cdots\\ =&\,5.20849\ldots. \end{align*}

There are (2−1)(3−1)=2(2-1)(3-1)=2 degrees of freedom. The upper 10%10\% critical value is 4.6054.605. Since 5.20849…>4.6055.20849\ldots>4.605, we reject H0H_0. There is sufficient evidence at the 10%10\% level that driving-test performance and age group are associated.