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CIE 9709 2025 June Paper 51 Q6

A Level / CIE / S1

CIE 9709 2025 June Paper 51 Paper · Question 6

题目

Problem

A bag contains 10 marbles, of which 4 are red and 6 are blue. Four marbles are selected from the bag at random, without replacement. The random variable XX denotes the number of blue marbles selected.

(a) Show that P(X=2)=37\mathrm{P}(X = 2) = \frac{3}{7}.

(2)

(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for XX.

(4)

(c) Find the probability that at least 2 of the marbles chosen are blue, given that at least 1 red marble and at least 1 blue marble are chosen.

(3)
题目中文翻译

一个袋子里有 10 颗弹珠,其中 4 颗是红色的,6 颗是蓝色的。从袋中随机不放回地抽取 4 颗弹珠。随机变量 XX 表示抽到的蓝色弹珠的颗数。

(a) 证明 P(X=2)=37\mathrm{P}(X = 2) = \frac{3}{7}。

(2)

(b) 列出 XX 的概率分布表。

(4)

(c) 已知抽到至少 1 颗红色弹珠和至少 1 颗蓝色弹珠,求抽到至少 2 颗蓝色弹珠的概率。

(3)
原卷通用作答要求

Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.

You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.

Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.

请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

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四颗中恰有两蓝,意味着从6蓝中选2、从4红中选2,再除以全部四颗选法。将给定结果自然化简出来。

答题过程

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There are (104)=210\binom{10}{4}=210 equally likely selections. To obtain exactly two blue marbles, choose two of the six blues and two of the four reds. Thus

P(X=2)=(62)(42)(104)=15×6210=37.\mathrm{P}(X=2) =\frac{\binom62\binom42}{\binom{10}{4}} =\frac{15\times6}{210} =\boxed{\frac37}.

解法二

思路

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也可以按不放回的次序计算两蓝两红。先指定蓝蓝红红的次序,再乘两蓝在四次中可占的位置数。

答题过程

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For the ordered colour sequence BBRR, the probability is

610594837.\frac6{10}\frac59\frac48\frac37.

There are (42)=6\binom42=6 possible positions for the two blues, each with the same probability. Hence

P(X=2)= (42)610594837= 63605040= 37.\begin{align*} \mathrm{P}(X=2) =&\,\binom42\frac6{10}\frac59\frac48\frac37\\[4mm] =&\,6\frac{360}{5040}\\[4mm] =&\,\boxed{\frac37}. \end{align*}

(b)

解法一

思路

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X可以是0至4;对每个值,从蓝珠中选X颗、红珠中选四减X颗。

答题过程

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For x=0,1,2,3,4x=0,1,2,3,4,

P(X=x)=(6x)(44−x)(104).\mathrm{P}(X=x)=\frac{\binom6x\binom4{4-x}}{\binom{10}{4}}.

The numerators are respectively 1,24,90,80,151,24,90,80,15, giving

xx0011223344
P(X=x)\mathrm{P}(X=x)1210\frac1{210}435\frac4{35}37\frac37821\frac8{21}114\frac1{14}

The numerators sum to 210210, so the probabilities sum to 1.

(c)

解法一

思路

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已知至少一红一蓝,排除全红与全蓝,所以条件范围只有X为1、2、3。其中至少两蓝的情况只有2、3。

答题过程

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Let EE be the event of at least one marble of each colour. Then EE is 1≤X≤31\leq X\leq3.

P(X≥2∣E)= P(X=2)+P(X=3)P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)= 90+8024+90+80= 170194= 8597.\begin{align*} \mathrm{P}(X\geq2\mid E) =&\,\frac{\mathrm{P}(X=2)+\mathrm{P}(X=3)} {\mathrm{P}(X=1)+\mathrm{P}(X=2)+\mathrm{P}(X=3)}\\[4mm] =&\,\frac{90+80}{24+90+80}\\[4mm] =&\,\frac{170}{194}\\[4mm] =&\,\boxed{\frac{85}{97}}. \end{align*}