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CIE 9709 2026 June Paper 53 Q5

A Level / CIE / S1

CIE 9709 2026 June Paper 53 Paper · Question 5

题目

Problem

The lengths of Indian cobra snakes are normally distributed with mean 125 cm125\,\mathrm{cm} and standard deviation 8 cm8\,\mathrm{cm}.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen Indian cobra has a length between 105 cm105\,\mathrm{cm} and 135 cm135\,\mathrm{cm}.

(3)

The masses of Indian cobras are normally distributed with mean 2.5 kg2.5\,\mathrm{kg} and standard deviation σ kg\sigma\,\mathrm{kg}. It is known that 81% of Indian cobras have a mass less than 2.7 kg2.7\,\mathrm{kg}.

(b) Find the value of σ\sigma.

(3)

A random sample of 80 Indian cobras is taken.

(c) Use an approximation to find the probability that fewer than 60 of these 80 Indian cobras have a mass less than 2.7 kg2.7\,\mathrm{kg}.

(5)
题目中文翻译

印度眼镜蛇的长度服从均值为 125 cm125\,\mathrm{cm}、标准差为 8 cm8\,\mathrm{cm} 的正态分布。

(a) 求随机选取的一条印度眼镜蛇的长度在 105 cm105\,\mathrm{cm} 与 135 cm135\,\mathrm{cm} 之间的概率。

(3)

印度眼镜蛇的质量服从均值为 2.5 kg2.5\,\mathrm{kg}、标准差为 σ kg\sigma\,\mathrm{kg} 的正态分布。已知 81% 的印度眼镜蛇质量小于 2.7 kg2.7\,\mathrm{kg}。

(b) 求 σ\sigma 的值。

(3)

随机抽取 80 条印度眼镜蛇作为样本。

(c) 利用近似方法,求这 80 条印度眼镜蛇中质量小于 2.7 kg2.7\,\mathrm{kg} 的条数少于 60 条的概率。

(5)
原卷通用作答要求

Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.

You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.

Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.

请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

展开

将长度的两个边界标准化,注意区间跨过均值,要保留均值两侧的概率。

答题过程

展开

Let L∼N(125,82)L\sim\mathrm{N}(125,8^2) denote length in centimetres. Then

P(105<L<135)= P(105−1258<Z<135−1258)= P(−2.5<Z<1.25)= Φ(1.25)−Φ(−2.5)= 0.888140…≈ 0.888.\begin{align*} \mathrm{P}(105<L<135) =&\,\mathrm{P}\biggl(\frac{105-125}{8}<Z<\frac{135-125}{8}\biggr)\\[4mm] =&\,\mathrm{P}(-2.5<Z<1.25)\\[4mm] =&\,\Phi(1.25)-\Phi(-2.5)\\[4mm] =&\,0.888140\ldots\\[4mm] \approx&\,\boxed{0.888}. \end{align*}

(b)

解法一

思路

展开

左尾概率0.81对应正标准分数。用已知均值和边界写标准化等式,再解出正的标准差。

答题过程

展开

Let M∼N(2.5,σ2)M\sim\mathrm{N}(2.5,\sigma^2) denote mass in kilograms. Since P(M<2.7)=0.81\mathrm{P}(M<2.7)=0.81,

2.7−2.5σ=Φ−1(0.81)=0.877896….\frac{2.7-2.5}{\sigma}=\Phi^{-1}(0.81)=0.877896\ldots.

Thus

σ= 0.20.877896…= 0.227817…≈0.228.\begin{align*} \sigma=&\,\frac{0.2}{0.877896\ldots}\\[4mm] =&\,0.227817\ldots\approx\boxed{0.228}. \end{align*}

(c)

解法一

思路

展开

满足质量限制的条数服从二项分布。用正态分布近似,方差是np乘以1减p;少于60的连续性修正边界为59.5。

答题过程

展开

Let XX be the number of snakes with mass less than 2.7 kg2.7\,\mathrm{kg}. Then X∼B(80,0.81)X\sim\mathrm{B}(80,0.81).

Here np=64.8np=64.8 and n(1−p)=15.2n(1-p)=15.2 are both greater than 5. Use the approximation

Y∼N(64.8,12.312),Y\sim\mathrm{N}(64.8,12.312),

where 12.312=80(0.81)(0.19)12.312=80(0.81)(0.19) is the variance. With a continuity correction,

P(X<60)= P(X≤59)≈ P(Y<59.5)= P(Z<59.5−64.812.312)= Φ(−1.510468…)= 0.065462…≈ 0.0655.\begin{align*} \mathrm{P}(X<60)=&\,\mathrm{P}(X\leq59)\\[4mm] \approx&\,\mathrm{P}(Y<59.5)\\[4mm] =&\,\mathrm{P}\biggl(Z<\frac{59.5-64.8}{\sqrt{12.312}}\biggr)\\[4mm] =&\,\Phi(-1.510468\ldots)\\[4mm] =&\,0.065462\ldots\\[4mm] \approx&\,\boxed{0.0655}. \end{align*}