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CIE 9709 2022 November Paper 53 Q2

A Level / CIE / S1

CIE 9709 2022 Nov Paper 53 Paper · Question 2

题目

Problem

In a large college, 32% of the students have blue eyes. A random sample of 80 students is chosen.

Use an approximation to find the probability that fewer than 20 of these students have blue eyes.

(5)

题目中文翻译

在一所大型学院中,32% 的学生有蓝色眼睛。随机抽取 80 名学生作为样本。

使用近似方法,求这些学生中有蓝色眼睛的人数少于 20 的概率。

(5)

原卷通用作答要求

Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.

You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.

Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.

请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。

解答

解法一

思路

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蓝眼人数服从二项分布,正态近似均值25.6、方差17.408;少于20修正为19.5。

答题过程

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Let X∼B(80,0.32)X\sim\mathrm{B}(80,0.32). Since np=25.6np=25.6 and n(1−p)=54.4n(1-p)=54.4 are both greater than 5, use Y∼N(25.6,17.408)Y\sim\mathrm{N}(25.6,17.408).

With a continuity correction,

P(X<20)= P(X≤19)≈ P(Y<19.5)= Φ(19.5−25.617.408)= 0.071866904…≈0.0719.\begin{align*} \mathrm{P}(X<20) =&\,\mathrm{P}(X\leq19)\\[4mm] \approx&\,\mathrm{P}(Y<19.5)\\[4mm] =&\,\Phi\biggl(\frac{19.5-25.6}{\sqrt{17.408}}\biggr)\\[4mm] =&\,0.071866904\ldots\approx\boxed{0.0719}. \end{align*}