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CIE 9709 2023 November Paper 51 Q3

A Level / CIE / S1

CIE 9709 2023 Nov Paper 51 Paper · Question 3

题目

Problem

A farmer sells eggs. The weights, in grams, of the eggs can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean 80.580.5 and standard deviation 6.66.6. Eggs are classified as small, medium or large according to their weight. A small egg weighs less than 76 grams and 40%40\% of the eggs are classified as medium.

(a) Find the percentage of eggs that are classified as small.

(3)

(b) Find the least possible weight of an egg classified as large.

(3)

150 of the eggs for sale last week were weighed.

(c) Use an approximation to find the probability that more than 68 of these eggs were classified as medium.

(5)
题目中文翻译

一位农民出售鸡蛋。鸡蛋的重量(以克为单位)可用均值为 80.580.5、标准差为 6.66.6 的正态分布建模。鸡蛋按重量分为小、中、大三类。小鸡蛋的重量小于 76 克,且有 40%40\% 的鸡蛋被归为中等鸡蛋。

(a) 求被归为小鸡蛋的鸡蛋所占的百分比。

(3)

(b) 求被归为大鸡蛋的鸡蛋的最小可能重量。

(3)

上周对待售鸡蛋中的 150 个进行了称重。

(c) 使用近似方法,求这些鸡蛋中有超过 68 个被归为中等鸡蛋的概率。

(5)
原卷通用作答要求

Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.

You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.

Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.

请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

展开

标准化小鸡蛋上界,先算左尾概率再转百分比。

答题过程

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Let W∼N(80.5,6.62)W\sim\mathrm{N}(80.5,6.6^2). Then

P(W<76)=Φ(76−80.56.6)=0.247676962….\mathrm{P}(W<76)=\Phi\biggl(\frac{76-80.5}{6.6}\biggr) =0.247676962\ldots.

The percentage of small eggs is therefore 24.8%24.8\%.

(b)

解法一

思路

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大鸡蛋起点以下包括全部小鸡蛋与40%中鸡蛋,故用(a)准确概率加0.40求分位点。

答题过程

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Let ww be the boundary between medium and large eggs. Using (a) without rounding,

P(W<w)=0.247676962…+0.40=0.647676962….\mathrm{P}(W<w)=0.247676962\ldots+0.40=0.647676962\ldots.

Hence

w−80.56.6=Φ−1(0.647676962…),\frac{w-80.5}{6.6}=\Phi^{-1}(0.647676962\ldots),

so

w=80.5+6.6Φ−1(0.647676962…)=83.001771…≈83.0 grams.w=80.5+6.6\Phi^{-1}(0.647676962\ldots) =83.001771\ldots\approx\boxed{83.0\text{ grams}}.

(c)

解法一

思路

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中鸡蛋数量的成功概率直接用0.4。超过68修正为68.5。

答题过程

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Let X∼B(150,0.4)X\sim\mathrm{B}(150,0.4). Since np=60np=60 and n(1−p)=90n(1-p)=90 are both greater than 5, use Y∼N(60,36)Y\sim\mathrm{N}(60,36).

With a continuity correction,

P(X>68)= P(X≥69)≈ P(Y>68.5)= 1−Φ(68.5−606)= 0.0782902…≈ 0.0783.\begin{align*} \mathrm{P}(X>68) =&\,\mathrm{P}(X\geq69)\\[4mm] \approx&\,\mathrm{P}(Y>68.5)\\[4mm] =&\,1-\Phi\biggl(\frac{68.5-60}{6}\biggr)\\[4mm] =&\,0.0782902\ldots\\[4mm] \approx&\,\boxed{0.0783}. \end{align*}