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CIE 9709 2023 November Paper 52 Q3

A Level / CIE / S1

CIE 9709 2023 Nov Paper 52 Paper · Question 3

题目

Problem

A factory produces a certain type of electrical component. It is known that 15% of the components produced are faulty. A random sample of 200 components is chosen.

Use an approximation to find the probability that more than 40 of these components are faulty.

(5)

题目中文翻译

一家工厂生产某种电子元件。已知所生产的元件中有 15% 存在故障。随机抽取 200 个元件作为样本。

用近似方法求这些元件中超过 40 个存在故障的概率。

(5)

原卷通用作答要求

Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.

You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.

Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.

请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。

解答

解法一

思路

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故障数服从二项分布,正态近似的均值30、方差25.5;超过40修正40.5。

答题过程

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Let X∼B(200,0.15)X\sim\mathrm{B}(200,0.15). Since np=30np=30 and n(1−p)=170n(1-p)=170 are both greater than 5, use Y∼N(30,25.5)Y\sim\mathrm{N}(30,25.5).

With a continuity correction,

P(X>40)= P(X≥41)≈ P(Y>40.5)= 1−Φ(40.5−3025.5)= 0.018794440…≈ 0.0188.\begin{align*} \mathrm{P}(X>40) =&\,\mathrm{P}(X\geq41)\\[4mm] \approx&\,\mathrm{P}(Y>40.5)\\[4mm] =&\,1-\Phi\biggl(\frac{40.5-30}{\sqrt{25.5}}\biggr)\\[4mm] =&\,0.018794440\ldots\\[4mm] \approx&\,\boxed{0.0188}. \end{align*}