题目
A certain train journey takes place every day throughout the year. The time taken, in minutes, for the journey is normally distributed with variance .
(a) The mean time for a random sample of of these journeys was found. A confidence interval for the population mean time was calculated and was found to have a width of minutes, correct to decimal places.
Find the value of .
(b) A passenger noted the times for randomly chosen journeys in January, February and March.
Give a reason why this sample is unsuitable for use in finding a confidence interval for the population mean time.
(c) A researcher took random samples and a confidence interval for the population mean was found from each sample.
Find the probability that exactly of these confidence intervals contain the true value of the population mean.
题目中文翻译
某趟列车全年每天都运行。行程用时(以分钟为单位)服从方差为 的正态分布。
(a) 随机抽取 次行程,求得平均用时。计算总体平均用时的 置信区间,得到区间宽度为 分钟,精确到小数点后 位。
求 的值。
(b) 一名乘客在一月、二月和三月随机选取了 次行程,记录了它们的用时。
给出一个理由,说明为什么这个样本不适合用来求总体平均用时的置信区间。
(c) 一名研究人员抽取了 个随机样本,并由每个样本求出总体均值的一个 置信区间。
求这些置信区间中恰好有 个包含总体均值真值的概率。
原卷通用作答要求
Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.
You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.
Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.
请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。
解答
(a)
解法一
思路
展开
94%区间两端各3%,临界值约1.881。区间宽度等于两倍边距,反求整数样本量。
答题过程
展开
For a 94% confidence interval,
The width is , so
Using the tabulated value ,
As is an integer, .
(b)
解法一
思路
展开
只选1至3月的旅程可能受季节因素影响,不能代表全年旅程时间。
答题过程
展开
Journeys in January, February and March may not represent the whole year, for example because weather conditions may affect journey times differently in other seasons.
(c)
解法一
思路
展开
每次重新随机抽样得到的区间覆盖总体均值的概率为0.94。按独立重复随机抽样模型,四个区间中恰好三个覆盖用二项概率。
答题过程
展开
For the separately drawn random samples, let be the number of intervals containing the population mean. In the independent repeated-sampling model,
Hence