题目
A machine dispenses coffee into cups. The volume, , of coffee in a cup was measured for a random sample of cups. The results were summarised as follows.
(a) (i) Calculate unbiased estimates of the population mean, , and population variance, .
(ii) Calculate a confidence interval for .
Another random sample of cups of coffee is taken, where . A confidence interval for is calculated using this sample. You may assume that, for large samples, unbiased estimates of are very similar.
(b) Without calculation, state whether this confidence interval would be wider or narrower than the confidence interval found in part (a)(ii). Give a reason for your answer.
题目中文翻译
一台机器将咖啡注入杯中。随机抽取 杯咖啡,测量每杯中咖啡的体积 。结果汇总如下。
(a) (i) 计算总体均值 和总体方差 的无偏估计值。
(ii) 计算 的一个 置信区间。
再随机抽取 杯咖啡,其中 。用这个样本计算 的一个 置信区间。可以假设对于大样本, 的无偏估计值非常接近。
(b) 不进行计算,指出这个置信区间比 (a)(ii) 中所得的置信区间更宽还是更窄。说明理由。
原卷通用作答要求
Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.
You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.
Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.
请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。
解答
(a)(i)
解法一
思路
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用样本总量求均值,用 作无偏方差分母,并保留未舍入分数供置信区间使用。
答题过程
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The unbiased estimate of the population mean is
For the variance,
(a)(ii)
解法一
思路
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样本量一百五十,使用样本均值的正态近似和(a)(i)的无偏方差估计。
答题过程
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By the Central Limit Theorem, for this large random sample an approximate confidence interval is
Thus the required interval is to significant figures.
(b)
解法一
思路
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按题目要求不计算具体宽度,只比较样本量与标准误的关系;估计方差近似相同已经给出。
答题过程
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The interval would be wider. The new sample size is less than , hence smaller than . With a similar variance estimate and the same confidence level, the smaller sample gives a larger standard error and greater uncertainty about the population mean.