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CIE 9709 2025 June Paper 63 Q3

A Level / CIE / S2

CIE 9709 2025 June Paper 63 Paper · Question 3

题目

Problem

A machine dispenses coffee into cups. The volume, V cm3V\,\mathrm{cm}^3, of coffee in a cup was measured for a random sample of 150150 cups. The results were summarised as follows.

∑v=46 350∑v2=14 410 800\sum v=46\,350\qquad \sum v^2=14\,410\,800

(a) (i) Calculate unbiased estimates of the population mean, μ\mu, and population variance, σ2\sigma^2.

(3)

(ii) Calculate a 95%95\% confidence interval for μ\mu.

(3)

Another random sample of nn cups of coffee is taken, where 100<n<120100<n<120. A 95%95\% confidence interval for μ\mu is calculated using this sample. You may assume that, for large samples, unbiased estimates of σ2\sigma^2 are very similar.

(b) Without calculation, state whether this confidence interval would be wider or narrower than the confidence interval found in part (a)(ii). Give a reason for your answer.

(2)
题目中文翻译

一台机器将咖啡注入杯中。随机抽取 150150 杯咖啡,测量每杯中咖啡的体积 V cm3V\,\mathrm{cm}^3。结果汇总如下。

∑v=46 350∑v2=14 410 800\sum v=46\,350\qquad \sum v^2=14\,410\,800

(a) (i) 计算总体均值 μ\mu 和总体方差 σ2\sigma^2 的无偏估计值。

(3)

(ii) 计算 μ\mu 的一个 95%95\% 置信区间。

(3)

再随机抽取 nn 杯咖啡,其中 100<n<120100<n<120。用这个样本计算 μ\mu 的一个 95%95\% 置信区间。可以假设对于大样本,σ2\sigma^2 的无偏估计值非常接近。

(b) 不进行计算,指出这个置信区间比 (a)(ii) 中所得的置信区间更宽还是更窄。说明理由。

(2)
原卷通用作答要求

Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.

You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.

Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.

请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。

解答

(a)(i)

解法一

思路

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用样本总量求均值,用 n−1n-1 作无偏方差分母,并保留未舍入分数供置信区间使用。

答题过程

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The unbiased estimate of the population mean is

v‾= 46350150= 309 cm3.\begin{align*} \overline v=&\,\frac{46350}{150}\\[4mm] =&\,\boxed{309\text{ cm}^3}. \end{align*}

For the variance,

s2= 1149(14410800−463502150)= 14410800−14322150149= 88650149≈595 cm6.\begin{align*} s^2=&\,\frac1{149}\bigg(14410800-\frac{46350^2}{150}\bigg)\\[4mm] =&\,\frac{14410800-14322150}{149}\\[4mm] =&\,\frac{88650}{149}\approx\boxed{595\text{ cm}^6}. \end{align*}

(a)(ii)

解法一

思路

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样本量一百五十,使用样本均值的正态近似和(a)(i)的无偏方差估计。

答题过程

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By the Central Limit Theorem, for this large random sample an approximate 95%95\% confidence interval is

 v‾±1.96s2150= 309±1.9688650/149150≈ 309±3.90352.\begin{align*} &\,\overline v\pm1.96\sqrt{\frac{s^2}{150}}\\[4mm] =&\,309\pm1.96\sqrt{\frac{88650/149}{150}}\\[4mm] \approx&\,309\pm3.90352. \end{align*}

Thus the required interval is (305, 313) cm3\boxed{(305,\ 313)\text{ cm}^3} to 33 significant figures.

(b)

解法一

思路

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按题目要求不计算具体宽度,只比较样本量与标准误的关系;估计方差近似相同已经给出。

答题过程

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The interval would be wider. The new sample size is less than 120120, hence smaller than 150150. With a similar variance estimate and the same confidence level, the smaller sample gives a larger standard error and greater uncertainty about the population mean.