题目
In Urberia, the masses, in kilograms, of men have the distribution . A certain footbridge in Urberia can take a maximum safe load of . When men stand on the bridge, the probability that the bridge is unsafe is less than .
Stating a necessary assumption, find the maximum value of .
题目中文翻译
在 Urberia,男性的体重以千克为单位,服从分布 。Urberia 的某座人行桥的最大安全荷载为 。当 名男子站在桥上时,桥不安全的概率小于 。
写出一个必要的假设,并求 的最大值。
原卷通用作答要求
Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.
You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.
Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.
请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。
解答
解法一
思路
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假设桥上的人可视为总体中的独立随机样本。总质量正态,方差随人数线性增长。把危险概率限制转成正态分位数不等式,再令 解二次不等式。
答题过程
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Assume that the men on the bridge form an independent random sample from the stated population. Let be their total mass. Then
The bridge is unsafe when . The requirement implies
Putting gives
The positive boundary root is
The other root is negative, so for the inequality requires , or . The greatest integer satisfying this is
For confirmation, at the unsafe probability is about , whereas at it is about .