题目
The heights of one-year-old trees of a certain variety are known to have mean . A scientist believes that, on average, trees of this age and variety in her region are slightly taller than in other places. She plans to carry out a hypothesis test, at the significance level, in order to test her belief.
(a) State the probability that she will make a Type I error.
She takes a random sample of such trees in her region and measures their heights, . Her results are summarised below.
(b) Carry out the test at the significance level.
(c) The scientist carries out the test correctly, but another scientist claims that she has made a Type II error.
Comment on this claim.
题目中文翻译
已知某品种的一年生树木的平均高度为 。一名科学家认为,在她所在地区,同龄同品种的树木平均比其他地方的略高。她计划在 的显著性水平下进行假设检验,以检验自己的看法。
(a) 写出她犯第一类错误的概率。
她在所在地区随机抽取 棵这样的树,测量其高度 。结果汇总如下。
(b) 在 的显著性水平下进行检验。
(c) 这名科学家正确地完成了检验,但另一名科学家声称她犯了第二类错误。
评价这一说法。
原卷通用作答要求
Answer all questions. You should use a calculator where appropriate.
You must show all necessary working clearly; no marks will be given for unsupported answers from a calculator.
Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place for angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.
请回答所有题目。适当时应使用计算器。必须清楚展示所有必要的计算过程;仅给出计算器答案而没有过程,不予评分。除非题目另有精度要求,非精确数值答案保留 3 位有效数字,以度为单位的角度保留 1 位小数。
解答
(a)
解法一
思路
展开
第一类错误的概率为检验的显著性水平。
答题过程
展开
(b)
解法一
思路
展开
以总体平均身高作右尾检验。用样本数据计算无偏方差和标准误,基于大样本正态近似比较临界值。
答题过程
展开
Let be the population mean height, in metres, of one-year-old trees of this variety in the scientist’s region.
The sample estimates are
For the variance,
By the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean is approximately normal. The test statistic is
The upper-tail 2% critical value is . Since , we reject .
There is sufficient evidence at the 2% significance level that the population mean height in the scientist’s region is greater than 2.3 m.
(c)
解法一
思路
展开
第二类错误须在未拒绝原假设时发生,而本次已经拒绝原假设。
答题过程
展开
The claim is incorrect. A Type II error occurs when a false null hypothesis is not rejected, whereas was rejected in part (b).