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IAL 2020 Jan Q2

A Level / Edexcel / S1

IAL 2020 Jan Paper · Question 2

题目

Problem

A group of 40 families was asked whether their family had a dog, a cat or a rabbit as pets.

No family had a dog and a rabbit

2 families had both a dog and a cat

12 families had a dog

14 families had a cat

11 families had a rabbit

9 families did not have any of these animals as pets

A family from this group is selected at random.

DD represents the event that the family has a dog

CC represents the event that the family has a cat

RR represents the event that the family has a rabbit

(a) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate this information.

(4)

(b) State, giving a reason, a pair of mutually exclusive events from DD, CC and RR.

(1)

(c) Find the probability that the family has exactly 2 of these kinds of animals as pets.

(1)

(d) Showing your working clearly, determine whether or not the events DD and CC are independent.

(2)

Sarah’s family is in the group and her family has a pet cat.

(e) Find the probability that Sarah’s family also has a pet rabbit.

(2)

(f) Find the exact value of P([DR]C)P([D\cup R]\mid C')

(2)

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

展开

先放最明确的重叠:DR=0D\cap R=0DC=2D\cap C=2。再用各集合总数倒推出只在单个集合或其他重叠中的人数。

答题过程

展开

Since no family had a dog and a rabbit,

n(DR)=0.\begin{align*} n(D\cap R)=0. \end{align*}

Also,

n(DC)=2.\begin{align*} n(D\cap C)=2. \end{align*}

Since n(D)=12n(D)=12, the dog-only region is

122=10.\begin{align*} 12-2=10. \end{align*}

There are 99 families outside all three circles.

The total number inside at least one circle is

409=31.\begin{align*} 40-9=31. \end{align*}

Using the other totals, the completed regions are:

regionnumberD only10C only8R only7DC only2CR only4DR0outside9\begin{array}{c|c} \text{region} & \text{number}\\ \hline D\text{ only} & 10\\ C\text{ only} & 8\\ R\text{ only} & 7\\ D\cap C\text{ only} & 2\\ C\cap R\text{ only} & 4\\ D\cap R & 0\\ \text{outside} & 9 \end{array}

The completed diagram is

(b)

解法一

思路

展开

互斥表示没有交集。题目直接给了 no family had a dog and a rabbit。

答题过程

展开

DD and RR are mutually exclusive, since

P(DR)=0.\begin{align*} P(D\cap R)=0. \end{align*}

(c)

解法一

思路

展开

恰好两种宠物,对应 DCD\cap CCRC\cap R 两块,因为 DR=0D\cap R=0

答题过程

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The number of families with exactly 2 kinds of pets is

2+4=6.\begin{align*} 2+4=6. \end{align*}

So the probability is

640=320.\begin{align*} \frac{6}{40}=\frac{3}{20}. \end{align*}

(d)

解法一

思路

展开

检验独立性可以比较 P(DC)P(D\cap C)P(D)P(C)P(D)P(C)

答题过程

展开 P(DC)=240=120.\begin{align*} P(D\cap C)=\frac{2}{40}=\frac{1}{20}. \end{align*}

Also,

P(D)=1240=310\begin{align*} P(D)=\frac{12}{40}=\frac{3}{10} \end{align*}

and

P(C)=1440=720.\begin{align*} P(C)=\frac{14}{40}=\frac{7}{20}. \end{align*}

So

P(D)P(C)=310720=21200.\begin{align*} P(D)P(C)=\frac{3}{10}\cdot\frac{7}{20}=\frac{21}{200}. \end{align*}

Since

12021200,\begin{align*} \frac{1}{20}\ne\frac{21}{200}, \end{align*}

the events DD and CC are not independent.

解法二

思路

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条件概率独立性判定法。 除了使用乘积公式 P(DC)=P(D)P(C)P(D \cap C) = P(D) P(C) 检验独立性外,也可以利用条件概率进行判定:

P(CD)=P(C)P(DC)=P(D)\begin{align*} P(C \mid D) = P(C) \quad \text{或} \quad P(D \mid C) = P(D) \end{align*}

本解法通过计算在有狗的前提下家庭有猫的条件概率 P(CD)P(C \mid D),并与无条件概率 P(C)P(C) 作比较。如果两者相等,则说明 DD 发生与否不改变 CC 发生的概率,即两事件独立;若不等,则不独立。这种方法直接从独立性的实际统计学意义出发,计算形式也更为简单。

答题过程

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We can test for independence by checking if P(CD)=P(C)P(C \mid D) = P(C) (or equivalently, P(DC)=P(D)P(D \mid C) = P(D)).

From the Venn diagram, we have:

P(C)=1440=720,P(D)=1240=310.\begin{align*} P(C) =&\,\, \frac{14}{40} = \frac{7}{20},\\[3mm] P(D) =&\,\, \frac{12}{40} = \frac{3}{10}. \end{align*}

Calculate the conditional probability P(CD)P(C \mid D):

P(CD)=P(CD)P(D)=2/4012/40=212=16.\begin{align*} P(C \mid D) =&\,\, \frac{P(C \cap D)}{P(D)}\\[3mm] =&\,\, \frac{2/40}{12/40}\\[3mm] =&\,\, \frac{2}{12}\\[3mm] =&\,\, \frac{1}{6}. \end{align*}

Since:

P(CD)=16720=P(C),\begin{align*} P(C \mid D) = \frac{1}{6} \neq \frac{7}{20} = P(C), \end{align*}

the events DD and CC are not independent.

(Note: Alternatively, we can calculate P(DC)=P(CD)P(C)=214=17P(D \mid C) = \frac{P(C \cap D)}{P(C)} = \frac{2}{14} = \frac{1}{7}. Since P(DC)P(D)=310P(D \mid C) \neq P(D) = \frac{3}{10}, they are not independent.)

(e)

解法一

思路

展开

已知 Sarah 家有 cat,所以分母是所有有 cat 的 14 家;其中也有 rabbit 的是 4 家。

答题过程

展开 P(RC)=P(RC)P(C)=414=27.P(R\mid C)=\frac{P(R\cap C)}{P(C)} =\frac{4}{14} =\frac{2}{7}.

(f)

解法一

思路

展开

条件是没有 cat。没有 cat 的家庭共有 10+7+9=2610+7+9=26 家,其中有 dog 或 rabbit 的是 10+7=1710+7=17 家。

答题过程

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Among families without a cat, the total number is

10+7+9=26.\begin{align*} 10+7+9=26. \end{align*}

Among these, the number with a dog or a rabbit is

10+7=17.\begin{align*} 10+7=17. \end{align*}

Therefore

P([DR]C)=1726.\begin{align*} P([D\cup R]\mid C')=\frac{17}{26}. \end{align*}