Skip to content
CalcGospel 國際數學圖譜
返回

IAL 2021 Oct Q1

A Level / Edexcel / S1

IAL 2021 Oct Paper · Question 1

题目

Problem

The Venn diagram shows the events AA, BB and CC and their associated probabilities, where pp and qq are probabilities.

Venn diagram

(a) Find P(B)P(B)

(1)

(b) Determine whether or not AA and BB are independent.

(2)

Given that P(CB)=P(C)P(C\mid B)=P(C)

(c) find the value of pp and the value of qq

(3)

The event DD is such that

  • AA and DD are mutually exclusive
  • P(BD)>0P(B\cap D)>0

(d) On the Venn diagram show a possible position for the event DD

(1)

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

展开

先用全概率为 11p+q=0.2p+q=0.2,再把 BB 中的区域加起来。

答题过程

展开

Since the total probability is 11,

p+q=1(0.04+0.06+0.3+0.4)=0.2.\begin{align*} p+q=1-(0.04+0.06+0.3+0.4)=0.2. \end{align*}

Therefore

P(B)=p+q+0.3=0.5.\begin{align*} P(B)=p+q+0.3=0.5. \end{align*}

(b)

解法一

思路

展开

检验独立性用 P(AB)=P(A)P(B)P(A\cap B)=P(A)P(B)

答题过程

展开

From the diagram,

P(A)=0.04+0.06+p+q=0.3.\begin{align*} P(A)=0.04+0.06+p+q=0.3. \end{align*}

Also,

P(AB)=p+q=0.2.\begin{align*} P(A\cap B)=p+q=0.2. \end{align*}

But

P(A)P(B)=0.3(0.5)=0.15.\begin{align*} P(A)P(B)=0.3(0.5)=0.15. \end{align*}

Since

P(AB)P(A)P(B),\begin{align*} P(A\cap B)\ne P(A)P(B), \end{align*}

AA and BB are not independent.

解法二

思路

展开

条件概率独立性判定法。 判定两个事件 AABB 是否独立,除了检验乘积公式 P(AB)=P(A)P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B) 外,还可以检验条件概率是否等于无条件概率,即:

P(AB)=P(A)P(BA)=P(B)\begin{align*} P(A \mid B) = P(A) \quad \text{或} \quad P(B \mid A) = P(B) \end{align*}

本解法通过计算在 BB 发生的前提下 AA 发生的条件概率 P(AB)P(A \mid B),并将其与 P(A)P(A) 作对比。若两者相等,则独立;若不等,则不独立。这种方法直接从“一个事件的发生是否改变另一个事件发生的概率”这一直观意义出发,在考场中也极易书写。

答题过程

展开

We can test for independence by checking if P(AB)=P(A)P(A \mid B) = P(A) (or equivalently, P(BA)=P(B)P(B \mid A) = P(B)).

From the Venn diagram, we have:

P(A)=0.04+0.06+p+q=0.3,P(B)=0.5,P(AB)=p+q=0.2.\begin{align*} P(A) =&\,\, 0.04 + 0.06 + p + q = 0.3,\\[3mm] P(B) =&\,\, 0.5,\\[3mm] P(A \cap B) =&\,\, p + q = 0.2. \end{align*}

Calculate the conditional probability P(AB)P(A \mid B):

P(AB)=P(AB)P(B)=0.20.5=0.4.\begin{align*} P(A \mid B) =&\,\, \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}\\[3mm] =&\,\, \frac{0.2}{0.5}\\[3mm] =&\,\, 0.4. \end{align*}

Since:

P(AB)=0.40.3=P(A),\begin{align*} P(A \mid B) = 0.4 \neq 0.3 = P(A), \end{align*}

the occurrence of event BB affects the probability of event AA occurring.

Therefore, AA and BB are not independent.

(Note: Alternatively, we can calculate P(BA)=P(AB)P(A)=0.20.3=230.667P(B \mid A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.2}{0.3} = \frac{2}{3} \approx 0.667. Since P(BA)P(B)=0.5P(B \mid A) \neq P(B) = 0.5, they are not independent.)

(c)

解法一

思路

展开

P(CB)=P(C)P(C\mid B)=P(C) 表示用条件概率列方程。图中 BCB\cap C 的区域是 pp,而 CC 的概率是 p+0.06p+0.06

答题过程

展开

Using P(CB)=P(C)P(C\mid B)=P(C),

p0.5=p+0.06.\begin{align*} \frac{p}{0.5}=p+0.06. \end{align*}

So

2p=p+0.06.\begin{align*} 2p=p+0.06. \end{align*}

Hence

p=0.06.\begin{align*} p=0.06. \end{align*}

Since p+q=0.2p+q=0.2,

q=0.14.\begin{align*} q=0.14. \end{align*}

(d)

解法一

思路

展开

DD 不能与 AA 重叠,但要与 BB 有交集,所以可以把 DD 画在 BB 的右侧、避开 AA 的位置。

答题过程

展开

Draw DD so that it overlaps BB but does not overlap AA.