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IAL 2022 June Q2

A Level / Edexcel / S1

IAL 2022 June Paper · Question 2

题目

Problem

Stuart is investigating the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the size of the population for a particular country. He takes a random sample of 99 years and records the size of the population, tt millions, and the GDP, gg billion dollars for each of these years.

The data are summarised as

n=9t=7.87g=144.84g2=3624.41n=9\qquad \sum t=7.87\qquad \sum g=144.84\qquad \sum g^2=3624.41 Stt=1.29Stg=40.25S_{tt}=1.29\qquad S_{tg}=40.25

(a) Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient between tt and gg

(3)

(b) Give an interpretation of your product moment correlation coefficient.

(1)

(c) Find the equation of the least squares regression line of gg on tt in the form g=a+btg=a+bt

(4)

(d) Give an interpretation of the value of bb in your regression line.

(1)

(e) (i) Use the regression line from part (c) to estimate the GDP, in billions of dollars, for a population of 70000007000000

(2)

(ii) Comment on the reliability of your answer in part (i). Give a reason, in context, for your answer.

(1)

Using the regression line from part (c), Stuart estimates that for a population increase of xx million there will be an increase of 0.10.1 billion dollars in GDP.

(f) Find the value of xx

(2)

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

展开

先求 SggS_{gg},再代入 PMCC 公式。

答题过程

展开 Sgg=g2(g)2n=3624.41144.8429=1293.4516\begin{align*} S_{gg} =&\,\sum g^2-\frac{(\sum g)^2}{n}\\[3mm] =&\,3624.41-\frac{144.84^2}{9}\\[3mm] =&\,1293.4516\ldots \end{align*}

Therefore

r=StgSttSgg=40.251.29(1293.4516)=0.985\begin{align*} r =&\,\frac{S_{tg}}{\sqrt{S_{tt}S_{gg}}}\\[3mm] =&\,\frac{40.25}{\sqrt{1.29(1293.4516\ldots)}}\\[3mm] =&\,0.985\ldots \end{align*}

So

r=0.985.\begin{align*} r=0.985. \end{align*}

(b)

解法一

思路

展开

rr 为正且很接近 11,表示 population 越大,GDP 一般越高。

答题过程

展开

As the population increases, the GDP generally increases.

(c)

解法一

思路

展开

回归线 gg on tt 的斜率是 Stg/SttS_{tg}/S_{tt},截距是 gˉbtˉ\bar{g}-b\bar{t}

答题过程

展开 b=StgStt=40.251.29=31.20155\begin{align*} b =&\,\frac{S_{tg}}{S_{tt}}\\[3mm] =&\,\frac{40.25}{1.29}\\[3mm] =&\,31.20155\ldots \end{align*}

Also,

a=gˉbtˉ=144.84931.20155(7.879)=11.19068\begin{align*} a =&\,\bar{g}-b\bar{t}\\[3mm] =&\,\frac{144.84}{9}-31.20155\ldots\left(\frac{7.87}{9}\right)\\[3mm] =&\,-11.19068\ldots \end{align*}

Thus

g=11.2+31.2t.\begin{align*} g=-11.2+31.2t. \end{align*}

(d)

解法一

思路

展开

tt 的单位是 million,gg 的单位是 billion dollars。所以斜率表示 population 每增加 11 million,GDP 平均增加多少 billion dollars。

答题过程

展开

For each increase of 11 million in population, GDP increases by about 31.231.2 billion dollars on average.

(e)(i)

解法一

思路

展开

70000007000000 人即 77 million,所以代入 t=7t=7

答题过程

展开 g=11.2+31.2(7)=207.2.\begin{align*} g =&\,-11.2+31.2(7)\\[3mm] =&\,207.2. \end{align*}

The estimated GDP is

207 billion dollars\begin{align*} 207\text{ billion dollars} \end{align*}

to 33 significant figures.

(e)(ii)

解法一

思路

展开

样本的平均 population 只有 7.8790.874\dfrac{7.87}{9}\approx0.874 million,而 77 million 远大于这个范围,估计不可靠。

答题过程

展开

The estimate is unreliable because a population of 77 million is much greater than the mean population in the sample.

(f)

解法一

思路

展开

GDP 的增加量等于斜率乘以 population 增加量。

答题过程

展开 0.1=31.2x.\begin{align*} 0.1=31.2x. \end{align*}

So

x=0.131.2=0.003205\begin{align*} x=\frac{0.1}{31.2}=0.003205\ldots \end{align*}

Therefore

x=0.00321\begin{align*} x=0.00321 \end{align*}

million people.