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IAL 2020 Jan S2 Q3

A Level / Edexcel / S2

IAL 2020 Jan Paper · Question 3

题目

Problem

A task was designed to take a person 25 minutes to complete. The random variable TT represents the time, in minutes, it takes to complete the task and is uniformly distributed over the interval [25k,25+3k][25-k, 25+3k] where k>0k>0

(a) Find P(250.5k<T<25+2.5k)P(25-0.5k<T<25+2.5k)

(1)

Given that E(T2)=918.76E(T^2)=918.76

(b) find the value of kk.

(6)

The task is to be completed by 50 people. Assuming that people complete the task independently,

(c) calculate the probability that at least 20 of these people complete the task in less than 25 minutes.

(3)

(Total for Question 3 is 10 marks)

题目中文翻译

一项任务设计为由一个人在 25 分钟内完成。随机变量 TT 表示完成该任务所需的时间(单位:分钟),且 TT 在区间 [25k,25+3k][25-k,25+3k] 上服从均匀分布,其中 k>0k>0

(a) 求 P(250.5k<T<25+2.5k)P(25-0.5k<T<25+2.5k)

已知 E(T2)=918.76E(T^2)=918.76

(b) 求 kk 的值。

该任务将由 50 人完成。假设每个人完成任务的情况相互独立,

(c) 计算其中至少 20 人在少于 25 分钟内完成任务的概率。

(第 3 题共 10 分)

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

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均匀分布在任一子区间内的概率等于“子区间长度除以整个分布区间的长度”。

答题过程

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The full interval has length

(25+3k)(25k)=4k,(25+3k)-(25-k)=4k,

and the required interval has length

(25+2.5k)(250.5k)=3k.(25+2.5k)-(25-0.5k)=3k.

Therefore,

P(250.5k<T<25+2.5k)=3k4k=34.P(25-0.5k<T<25+2.5k) =\frac{3k}{4k} =\boxed{\frac34}.

(b)

解法一

思路

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先用均匀分布的期望与方差公式求出 E(T)E(T)Var(T)\operatorname{Var}(T),再利用 E(T2)=Var(T)+[E(T)]2E(T^2)=\operatorname{Var}(T)+[E(T)]^2 建立关于 kk 的二次方程。解方程后,要根据 k>0k>0 排除负根。

答题过程

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For a uniform distribution on [25k,25+3k][25-k,25+3k],

E(T)=(25k)+(25+3k)2=25+kE(T)=\frac{(25-k)+(25+3k)}{2}=25+k

and

Var(T)=((25+3k)(25k))212=4k23.\operatorname{Var}(T) =\frac{\big((25+3k)-(25-k)\big)^2}{12} =\frac{4k^2}{3}.

Using E(T2)=Var(T)+[E(T)]2E(T^2)=\operatorname{Var}(T)+[E(T)]^2,

918.76=4k23+(25+k)2=7k23+50k+625.\begin{align*} 918.76 =&\,\frac{4k^2}{3}+(25+k)^2 \\[4mm] =&\,\frac{7k^2}{3}+50k+625. \end{align*}

Hence

7k2+150k881.28=0.7k^2+150k-881.28=0.

Solving,

k=150±1502+4(7)(881.28)14=4.8or26.228\begin{align*} k =&\,\frac{-150\pm \sqrt{150^2+4(7)(881.28)}}{14} \\[4mm] =&\,4.8\quad\text{or}\quad-26.228\ldots \end{align*}

Since k>0k>0,

k=4.8.\boxed{k=4.8}.

解法二

思路

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官方评分资料也给出了直接积分求 E(T2)E(T^2) 的路线。均匀分布区间的长度为 4k4k,所以密度是 1/(4k)1/(4k);把题目给出的二阶矩代入积分,同样可得到关于 kk 的二次方程。

答题过程

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The probability density is 1/(4k)1/(4k) on the interval. Therefore,

E(T2)=25k25+3kt214kdt=[t312k]25k25+3k=(25+3k)3(25k)312k=625+50k+7k23.\begin{align*} E(T^2) =&\,\int_{25-k}^{25+3k}t^2\frac{1}{4k}\,\mathrm{d}t \\[4mm] =&\,\left[\frac{t^3}{12k}\right]_{25-k}^{25+3k} \\[4mm] =&\,\frac{(25+3k)^3-(25-k)^3}{12k} \\[4mm] =&\,625+50k+\frac{7k^2}{3}. \end{align*}

Since E(T2)=918.76E(T^2)=918.76,

7k2+150k881.28=0.7k^2+150k-881.28=0.

Solving this equation and using k>0k>0 gives

k=4.8.\boxed{k=4.8}.

(c)

解法一

思路

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对一名参与者而言,25 位于均匀分布区间中距左端点 kk 的位置,因此在 25 分钟内完成的概率为 1/41/4。50 人相互独立,所以符合二项分布;“至少 20 人”用补集计算。

答题过程

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For one person,

P(T<25)=25(25k)4k=14.P(T<25)=\frac{25-(25-k)}{4k}=\frac14.

Let XX be the number of people who complete the task in less than 25 minutes. Then

XB(50,14).X\sim\operatorname{B}\left(50,\frac14\right).

Therefore,

P(X20)=1P(X19)=10.9861=0.0139.\begin{align*} P(X\geqslant20) =&\,1-P(X\leqslant19) \\[4mm] =&\,1-0.9861 \\[4mm] =&\,\boxed{0.0139}. \end{align*}