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IAL 2021 Oct S2 Q2

A Level / Edexcel / S2

IAL 2021 Oct Paper · Question 2

题目

Problem

(i) The continuous random variable X is uniformly distributed over the interval [a, b]

Given that P(8 < X < 14) = 1/5 and E(X) = 11

(a) write down P(X > 14)

(1)

(b) find P(6X > a + b)

(4)

(ii) Susie makes a strip of pasta 45 cm long. She then cuts the strip of pasta, at a randomly chosen point, into two pieces. The random variable S is the length of the shortest piece of pasta.

(a) Write down the distribution of S

(1)

(b) Calculate the probability that the shortest piece of pasta is less than 12 cm long.

(2)

Susie makes 20 strips of pasta, all 45 cm long, and separately cuts each strip of pasta, at a randomly chosen point, into two pieces.

(c) Calculate the probability that exactly 6 of the pieces of pasta are less than 12 cm long.

(3)

(Total for Question 2 is 11 marks)

题目中文翻译

(i) 随机变量 XX 在区间 [a,b][a, b] 上服从均匀分布。

已知 P(8<X<14)=15P(8 < X < 14) = \frac15E(X)=11E(X)=11

(a) 写下 P(X>14)P(X>14)

(b) 求 P(6X>a+b)P(6X > a+b)

(ii) Susie 做了一条 45 cm 长的意大利面条。她在一个随机位置把面条切成两段。随机变量 SS 表示较短那一段的长度。

(a) 写下 SS 的分布。

(b) 计算较短那一段少于 12 cm 的概率。

Susie 做了 20 条 45 cm 长的面条,并分别在随机位置切成两段。

(c) 计算恰好有 6 段面条长度少于 12 cm 的概率。

(第 2 题共 11 分)

解答

(i)(a)

解法一

思路

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均匀分布的均值是区间中点,所以 a+b=22a+b=22。区间 (8,14)(8,14) 也以 11 为中点,因此在整个均匀分布区间内,位于 14 右侧的部分与位于 8 左侧的部分等长;除去中间概率 1/51/5 后,余下概率平均分到两侧。

答题过程

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Since

E(X)=a+b2=11,E(X)=\frac{a+b}{2}=11,

the distribution is symmetric about 11. The interval (8,14)(8,14) is also symmetric about 11, so the remaining probability is divided equally between its two sides. Therefore,

P(X>14)=12(115)=25.\begin{align*} P(X>14)=&\,\frac12\left(1-\frac15\right) \\[4mm] =&\,\boxed{\frac25}. \end{align*}

(i)(b)

解法一

思路

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先用均匀分布中「概率等于长度比例」求总区间长度 bab-a,再与 a+b=22a+b=22 联立求出端点。最后把不等式 6X>a+b6X>a+b 化为关于 XX 的阈值,并再次用长度比例计算概率。

答题过程

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For a uniform distribution,

P(8<X<14)=148ba=15.P(8<X<14)=\frac{14-8}{b-a}=\frac15.

Hence,

ba=30.b-a=30.

Also, E(X)=11E(X)=11 gives a+b=22a+b=22. Solving these simultaneous equations,

a=4,b=26.a=-4, \qquad b=26.

Now,

6X>a+bX>113.6X>a+b \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad X>\frac{11}{3}.

Therefore,

P(6X>a+b)=P(X>113)=2611/326(4)=6790.\begin{align*} P(6X>a+b) =&\,P\left(X>\frac{11}{3}\right) \\[4mm] =&\,\frac{26-11/3}{26-(-4)} \\[4mm] =&\,\boxed{\frac{67}{90}}. \end{align*}

(ii)(a)

解法一

思路

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切点在 45 cm 长的面条上均匀分布。较短一段的长度从 0 增至最大值 22.522.5 cm;每个可能的较短长度都对应左右对称的两个切点,因此其密度为原切点密度的两倍,并在该区间上保持常数。

答题过程

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The shortest piece can have any length from 0 to 22.522.5 cm, with constant density. Therefore,

SU(0,22.5).\boxed{S\sim\operatorname{U}(0,22.5)}.

Equivalently,

fS(s)={245,0s22.5,0,otherwise.f_S(s)= \begin{cases} \dfrac{2}{45}, & 0\leqslant s\leqslant22.5, \\[3mm] 0, & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases}

(ii)(b)

解法一

思路

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由 (ii)(a),SS[0,22.5][0,22.5] 上均匀分布,所以所求概率就是区间 [0,12)[0,12) 的长度占总区间长度的比例。

答题过程

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Using SU(0,22.5)S\sim\operatorname{U}(0,22.5),

P(S<12)=1222.5=815.\begin{align*} P(S<12)=&\,\frac{12}{22.5} \\[4mm] =&\,\boxed{\frac8{15}}. \end{align*}

(ii)(c)

解法一

思路

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每条面条中不可能有两段都短于 12 cm,因为两段总长为 45 cm。因此「有一段短于 12 cm」等价于「较短一段短于 12 cm」,单条面条的成功概率为 8/158/15。20 条分别独立切割,所以用二项分布计算恰好 6 条成功的概率。

答题过程

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Let TT be the number of the 20 strips that produce a piece shorter than 12 cm. From part (ii)(b),

TB(20,815).T\sim\operatorname{B}\left(20,\frac8{15}\right).

Therefore,

P(T=6)=(206)(815)6(715)14=0.02072\begin{align*} P(T=6)=&\, \binom{20}{6}\left(\frac8{15}\right)^6 \left(\frac7{15}\right)^{14} \\[4mm] =&\,0.02072\ldots \end{align*}

Hence the required probability is 0.0207\boxed{0.0207} to 3 significant figures.