Skip to content
CalcGospel 國際數學圖譜
返回

IAL 2022 Oct S2 Q4

A Level / Edexcel / S2

IAL 2022 Oct Paper · Question 4

题目

Problem

The probability that a person completes a particular task in less than 15 minutes is 0.4 Jeffrey selects 20 people at random and asks them to complete the task. The random variable, XX, represents the number of people who complete the task in less than 15 minutes.

(a) Find P(5X<8)P(5 \leqslant X < 8)

(3)

Mia takes a random sample of 140 people. Using a normal approximation, the probability that fewer than nn of these 140 people complete the task in less than 15 minutes is 0.0239 to 4 decimal places.

(b) Find the value of nn Show your working clearly.

(6)

(Total for Question 4 is 9 marks)

题目中文翻译

一个人完成某项任务少于 15 分钟的概率为 0.4。 Jeffrey 随机抽取 20 个人并要求他们完成该任务。随机变量 XX 表示在少于 15 分钟内完成任务的人数。

(a) 求 P(5X<8)P(5 \leqslant X < 8)

Mia 随机抽取 140 个人。 使用正态近似,这 140 个人中少于 nn 个人在少于 15 分钟内完成任务的概率为 0.0239,精确到 4 位小数。

(b) 求 nn 的值。 清楚展示你的计算过程。

(第 4 题共 9 分)

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

展开

每个人在 15 分钟内完成任务的概率固定为 0.40.4,抽取人数固定为 20,因此 XX 服从二项分布。把 5X<85\leqslant X<8 改写为 5X75\leqslant X\leqslant7,再用两个累积概率相减。

答题过程

展开

The number of people who complete the task in less than 15 minutes follows

XB(20,0.4).X\sim\operatorname{B}(20,0.4).

Therefore,

P(5X<8)=P(X7)P(X4)=0.41590.0510=0.3649.\begin{align*} P(5\leqslant X<8) =&\,P(X\leqslant7)-P(X\leqslant4) \\[4mm] =&\,0.4159-0.0510 \\[4mm] =&\,0.3649. \end{align*}

(b)

解法一

思路

展开

YY 表示 140 人中在 15 分钟内完成任务的人数,则 YY 服从二项分布。由于样本量大且 npnpn(1p)n(1-p) 均足够大,可用均值为 5656、方差为 33.633.6 的正态分布近似。事件「少于 nn 人」是 Yn1Y\leqslant n-1,所以连续性修正后的边界为 n0.5n-0.5。再由左尾概率 0.02390.0239 查得标准正态分位数并求 nn

答题过程

展开

Let YY be the number of people, out of 140, who complete the task in less than 15 minutes. Then

YB(140,0.4).Y\sim\operatorname{B}(140,0.4).

Here,

np=56,np(1p)=140(0.4)(0.6)=33.6.np=56, \qquad np(1-p)=140(0.4)(0.6)=33.6.

Thus, using a normal approximation,

Y˙N(56,33.6).Y\mathrel{\dot\sim}\operatorname{N}(56,33.6).

Since P(Y<n)=P(Yn1)P(Y<n)=P(Y\leqslant n-1), the continuity-corrected boundary is n0.5n-0.5. Also,

Φ1(0.0239)=1.97914\Phi^{-1}(0.0239)=-1.97914\ldots

Therefore,

n0.55633.6=1.97914\frac{n-0.5-56}{\sqrt{33.6}} =-1.97914\ldots

and hence

n=56.51.9791433.6=45.0278\begin{align*} n=&\,56.5-1.97914\ldots\sqrt{33.6} \\[4mm] =&\,45.0278\ldots \end{align*}

Since nn is an integer,

n=45.\boxed{n=45}.