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S3 2025 Jun Q5

A Level / Edexcel / S3

IAL 2025 jun Paper · Question 5

题目

Problem

5.

The following table shows the number of male puppies born in 250 dog litters of size 5.

Number of males012345
Number of litters2409085303

Jeff believes that a binomial distribution would be a suitable model for these data.

(a) Find the proportion of male puppies born in these litters of size 5.

(2)

Jeff calculates expected frequencies, to 2 decimal places, as follows.

Number of males012345
Expected frequenciesrr41.9279.9176.1636.306.92

(b) Find the value of rr.

(2)

The value of ∑(O−E)2E\sum\frac{(O-E)^2}{E} for the given values in the table excluding rr is 5.70 to 2 decimal places.

(c) Using a 5% significance level, test whether or not a binomial distribution is a suitable model for the number of male puppies born in these 250 litters. You should state the hypotheses, the degrees of freedom and the critical value used.

(7)
(Total for Question 5 is 11 marks)
题目中文翻译

下表给出了 250 窝幼犬中每窝雄性幼犬的数量,每窝均有 5 只幼犬。

雄性小狗数量012345
窝数2409085303

Jeff 认为二项分布会是一个合适的模型。

(a) 求这些每窝 5 只的幼犬中雄性所占的比例。

(2)

Jeff 计算得到如下期望频数,保留到 2 位小数。

雄性小狗数量012345
期望频数rr41.9279.9176.1636.306.92

(b) 求 rr 的值。

(2)

对于表中除 rr 以外给出的数据,∑(O−E)2E=5.70\sum\frac{(O-E)^2}{E}=5.70,保留到 2 位小数。

(c) 在 5% 的显著性水平下,检验二项分布是否适合作为这 250 窝幼犬中每窝雄性幼犬数量的模型。 你应写出原假设、自由度和所用临界值。

(7)

解答

(a)

解法一

思路

展开

先用“雄性数量 × 对应窝数”求出雄性小狗总数,再除以 250×5250\times5 只小狗的总数,所得样本比例就是二项模型中 pp 的估计值。

答题过程

展开

The total number of male puppies is

 0(2)+1(40)+2(90)+3(85)+4(30)+5(3)= 610.\begin{align*} &\,0(2)+1(40)+2(90)\\ &\qquad{}+3(85)+4(30)+5(3)\\ =&\,610. \end{align*}

The total number of puppies is 250×5=1250250\times5=1250. Therefore, the proportion of male puppies is

p^= 6101250= 0.488.\begin{align*} \widehat p =&\,\frac{610}{1250}\\ =&\,\boxed{0.488}. \end{align*}

(b)

解法一

思路

展开

各格期望频数之和必须等于总窝数 250。按照题表中已经保留两位小数的其他五格,从 250 中扣除它们即可得到 rr。

答题过程

展开

The expected frequencies must sum to 250. Hence

r= 250−(41.92+79.91+76.16+36.30+6.92)= 8.79.\begin{align*} r =&\,250-(41.92+79.91+76.16\\ &\qquad{}+36.30+6.92)\\ =&\,\boxed{8.79}. \end{align*}

Equivalently, using p^=0.488\widehat p=0.488 from part (a),

250(1−0.488)5=8.796093…≈8.80.250(1-0.488)^5=8.796093\ldots\approx8.80.

(c)

解法一

思路

展开

题目已经给出其余五格的卡方贡献之和,所以只需计算“0 只雄性”这一格的贡献并加上 5.70。六格中估计了一个参数 pp,因此自由度为 6−1−1=46-1-1=4,再与 5%5\% 临界值比较。

答题过程

展开

The hypotheses are

H0: A binomial distribution is a suitable model.H1: A binomial distribution is not a suitable model.\begin{align*} H_0:&\ \text{A binomial distribution is a suitable model.}\\ H_1:&\ \text{A binomial distribution is not a suitable model.} \end{align*}

For the cell corresponding to no male puppies, the contribution to the test statistic is

(O−E)2E= (2−8.79)28.79= 5.245….\begin{align*} \frac{(O-E)^2}{E} =&\,\frac{(2-8.79)^2}{8.79}\\ =&\,5.245\ldots. \end{align*}

Therefore,

χ2= 5.70+5.245…= 10.945…= 10.95(2 d.p.).\begin{align*} \chi^2 =&\,5.70+5.245\ldots\\ =&\,10.945\ldots\\ =&\,10.95\quad\text{(2 d.p.)}. \end{align*}

There are 6 cells and one parameter has been estimated, so

degrees of freedom=6−1−1=4.\text{degrees of freedom}=6-1-1=4.

At the 5%5\% significance level, the critical value is 9.4889.488. Since

10.95>9.488,10.95>9.488,

H0H_0 is rejected. There is significant evidence that a binomial distribution is not a suitable model for the number of male puppies in these litters.

解法二

思路

展开

将每一格的 (O−E)2/E(O-E)^2/E 展开后求和,利用 ∑O=∑E=250\sum O=\sum E=250,可把统计量改写为 ∑O2/E−250\sum O^2/E-250。直接使用六格期望频数计算,避免逐格求差和平方;最后仍按四个自由度作检验。

答题过程

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The hypotheses are

H0: A binomial distribution is a suitable model.H1: A binomial distribution is not a suitable model.\begin{align*} H_0:&\ \text{A binomial distribution is a suitable model.}\\ H_1:&\ \text{A binomial distribution is not a suitable model.} \end{align*}

Since ∑O=∑E=250\sum O=\sum E=250,

χ2= ∑(O−E)2E= ∑O2E−2∑O+∑E= ∑O2E−250.\begin{align*} \chi^2 =&\,\sum\frac{(O-E)^2}{E}\\ =&\,\sum\frac{O^2}{E}-2\sum O+\sum E\\ =&\,\sum\frac{O^2}{E}-250. \end{align*}

Using r=8.79r=8.79 and the other expected frequencies in the table,

χ2= 228.79+40241.92+90279.91 +85276.16+30236.30+326.92−250= 10.947073…≈ 10.95.\begin{align*} \chi^2 =&\,\frac{2^2}{8.79}+\frac{40^2}{41.92}+\frac{90^2}{79.91}\\ &\,+\frac{85^2}{76.16}+\frac{30^2}{36.30}+\frac{3^2}{6.92}-250\\ =&\,10.947073\ldots\\ \approx&\,10.95. \end{align*}

There are 6 cells and one estimated parameter, so the number of degrees of freedom is 6−1−1=46-1-1=4. The critical value at the 5%5\% significance level is 9.4889.488.

Since 10.95>9.48810.95>9.488, reject H0H_0. There is significant evidence that a binomial distribution is not a suitable model for the number of male puppies in these litters.